What is the current probability for "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?"?

This prediction market is currently priced at 12¢ (12% implied probability) on Kalshi. It closes on January 1, 2027. 255 days remaining.

What is the implied yield on "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?"?

The annualized implied yield on the YES side is 1647.5% and 12.5% on the NO side. Implied yield measures the annualized return if the contract is held to expiry and resolves in your favor.

Where can I trade "How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?"?

This market trades on Kalshi, a US-regulated prediction market exchange. You can also analyze it with SimpleFunctions — AI-powered indicators, regime detection, and autonomous trading across both venues.

How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Prediction markets currently give a 12% probability that How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?. This contract trades at 12¢ on Kalshi, closing January 1, 2027. This market is pricing an extremely low probability (13%) for SpaceX exceeding 200 launches in 2026, creating a notable 200 basis point arbitrage gap versus Polymarket's 15¢ quote.

█████░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░░

12¢

Bid/Ask 8/10¢·Spread 2¢·Vol $0·OI $3,807.27·Closes Jan 1, 2027·255d remaining

KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-200

7-day price3 snapshots · 3 regime

8¢8¢ current

Apr 87¢Apr 16

Analysis

4d ago

This market is pricing an extremely low probability (13%) for SpaceX exceeding 200 launches in 2026, creating a notable 200 basis point arbitrage gap versus Polymarket's 15¢ quote. The asymmetric implied yields—1,617% for Yes versus 12.2% for No—reflect the binary nature of the threshold, though the 808% risk-adjusted yield suggests meaningful uncertainty about whether 200+ launches is truly achievable. With only $3,800 open interest and a 5¢ spread, liquidity is thin, making the cross-venue discrepancy potentially exploitable but difficult to trade at scale.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 14¢(Δ -2¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.84IY 885.7%Close-time delta 39h

Resolution rules

If SpaceX has more than 200 launches in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1647.5%

IY (No) 12.5%

Adj IY 824%

CRI 12

Overround 1.8%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1647.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	12.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	824%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	12	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	1.8%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.341

Spread

2¢

Computed

4/21/2026, 8:12:30 PM

Observability lowEvent type financial

Indicators computed 4/21/2026, 8:08:17 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXSPACEXCOUNT-26B-200 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →