Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?

Randy Feenstra is priced at a substantial 75% probability across both Polymarket and Kalshi (minimal 1¢ gap), suggesting strong market consensus, though the extremely asymmetric implied yields (245% for Yes vs. 2747% for No) indicate the No side offers outsized returns if an upset occurs. With only 44 days to expiry and modest $588 daily volume against $12K open interest, liquidity is relatively thin for a high-probability outcome, and the 139% realized volatility combined with a Cliff Risk Index of 3 suggests potential for sharp moves as the June 2 primary approaches. The 7-day rally from 68¢ to 76¢ reflects recent positive momentum for Feenstra, though the neutral regime score and 0.8 info arrivals per hour indicate the market remains responsive to new developments.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Iowa, scheduled to take place on June 2, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Iowa Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

Regime

Trade