Vanta IPO before 2027?

Vanta's IPO probability has collapsed 39% over the past week (from 18¢ to 11¢), suggesting deteriorating market sentiment toward a near-term public offering despite 256 days remaining until expiry. The extreme 1155% implied yield on "Yes" reflects the massive risk premium for a binary outcome with minimal liquidity—zero 24-hour volume on $8.6M open interest indicates this is a highly illiquid, speculative position. The 8/10 cliff risk score and steep asymmetry between Yes (1155%) and No (17.6%) yields suggest the market is pricing in very low probability but hasn't fully capitalized the tail risk of an unexpected IPO announcement.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, as confirmed by official company announcements or credible news sources. The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange. If the listed company merges with another entity, is acquired, or ceases to exist before the market resolves, the market will also resolve to "No". This market will resolve early if the listed company completes an IPO by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

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