Israel x Turkey military clash before 2027?

The 17¢ price reflects a low baseline probability for direct Israeli-Turkish military conflict, yet the extreme 696.5% implied yield on "Yes" positions signals substantial tail-risk premium—traders are pricing in a dramatic payoff if geopolitical tensions escalate over the next 256 days. The 403% realized volatility and elevated cliff risk index (5/10) indicate this market experiences sharp repricing events, likely tied to Middle East developments, though the modest $635k daily volume and $24.8M open interest suggest relatively thin liquidity that could amplify price swings on news flow.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of Israel and Turkey by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Isreali and Turkish military forces. Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution. Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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