Will Sharice Davids be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas?

25¢

Bid/Ask 19/31¢·Spread 12¢·Vol $176·OI $4,753.697·Closes Aug 4, 2026·107d remaining

0xde07228f2e6db44b37afae1059d2dd13aca52c0803bcc2b67d874a5b39d85ee1

7-day price443 snapshots · 7 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Sharice Davids's nomination odds have collapsed 46% in the past week, now trading at 25¢ on Polymarket versus 16¢ on Kalshi, suggesting significant recent negative developments or shifting primary dynamics in Kansas. The 9¢ cross-venue gap combined with extreme realized volatility of 1164% and a 1027% implied yield on "Yes" indicates substantial uncertainty and potential mispricing, though the thin 24-hour volume of $176 limits confidence in price discovery. With 107 days to the August 2026 close and a 3.0 cliff risk index, this market remains highly sensitive to primary announcements and candidate positioning shifts.

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 16¢(Δ +9¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.94IY 340.2%Close-time delta 10959h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Kansas. If no 2026 Kansas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Kansas Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1026.5%

IY (No) 114.1%

Adj IY 1027%

CRI 3

RV 1164%

VR 3.19

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1026.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	114.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	1027%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	3	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	1164%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	3.19	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	2.1/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.1%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/19/2026, 7:55:25 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 7:53:35 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xde07228f2e6db44b37afae1059d2dd13aca52c0803bcc2b67d874a5b39d85ee1 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →