Will Jamie Davis Jr. be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana?

79¢

Bid/Ask 76/82¢·Spread 6¢·Vol $108·OI $11,465.859·Closes May 16, 2026·27d remaining

0xf7327ee0a2475c2c9b4a1ac7bb4e1b49fce57c2a33ebf704e03630ec800f2944

7-day price373 snapshots · 9 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

Jamie Davis Jr. is priced at a substantial 79¢ probability on Polymarket with an unusually high implied yield of 364% for "Yes" positions, suggesting significant uncertainty despite the high price—this is further evidenced by extreme realized volatility of 161% and a "No" yield exceeding 5,000%. The 2¢ cross-venue gap to Kalshi (77¢) is modest, but the thin 24-hour volume of $108 against $11.5M open interest raises liquidity concerns, and with only 27 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 4, late-breaking primary developments could trigger sharp repricing.

Cross-venue

Also on kalshi at 77¢(Δ +2¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.87IY 19.4%Close-time delta 12879h

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Louisiana. If no 2026 Louisiana Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Louisiana Democratic Party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 364.1%

IY (No) 5152.3%

Adj IY 5152%

CRI 4

RV 161%

VR 0.85

▶ Full indicator table (8)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	364.1%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	5152.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	5152%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	4	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
RV	161%	Realized Volatility — annualized stddev from 48h price history
VR	0.85	Vol Ratio — realized vol / theoretical max. >0.8 very active, <0.1 dead
IAR	0.9/h	Info Arrival Rate — meaningful price changes per hour (48h)
Overround	-0.0%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.409

Spread

6¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 8:28:51 AM

Observability mediumEvent type political

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 8:23:32 AM

Trade

View on polymarket →sf trade 0xf7327ee0a2475c2c9b4a1ac7bb4e1b49fce57c2a33ebf704e03630ec800f2944 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →Realized Volatility →