Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?

Seth Moulton's nomination odds are priced at a significant discount on Polymarket (14¢) compared to Kalshi (15¢), suggesting potential arbitrage opportunity, though the 9¢ spread and zero 24-hour volume indicate illiquidity that could make execution difficult. The extreme 1664% implied yield on a "Yes" resolution reflects the low base rate and long 135-day timeframe, while the 1325% realized volatility and 2.73 vol ratio signal this is a highly speculative micro-cap market prone to sharp repricing. With only $11.6K open interest and minimal information arrival (1.4 events/hour), this market lacks the depth to reliably price Moulton's actual nomination probability against other Massachusetts Democratic candidates.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Massachusetts. If no 2026 Massachusetts Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Massachusetts Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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