Will Paul LePage be the Republican Nominee for ME-02?

The market is pricing LePage as an overwhelming favorite at 91¢, but the extremely asymmetric implied yields (71.2% for Yes vs. 7283% for No) and high realized volatility of 80% suggest significant uncertainty beneath the surface despite the high price. With only $51 in 24-hour volume against $9.8M open interest and a Cliff Risk Index of 10, liquidity is dangerously thin relative to position size, creating potential for sharp repricing if new information emerges in the 51 days before the June 9 primary. The 2-cent spread and recent 2-cent price decline from 93¢ indicate some recent skepticism, though the neutral regime score suggests the market hasn't yet shifted into a clear directional trend.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the ME-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on June 9, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Regime

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