Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic Nominee for MI-13?

This market shows extreme volatility (417% realized, 2.45 vol ratio) with a notably wide 10¢ spread despite $9.3M open interest, suggesting liquidity clustering rather than consistent depth. The asymmetric implied yields (280% for Yes vs. 418% for No) indicate market participants price significantly higher risk in a No resolution, though the neutral regime and modest 24-hour volume of $100 suggest limited conviction or recent price discovery. With 107 days to the August 4, 2026 primary and an info arrival rate of 1.6 events per hour, this market appears to be pricing in substantial uncertainty around Thanedar's nomination prospects, though the 55¢ price has remained stable over the past week.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MI-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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