Minnesota at Denver Winner?

This market shows extreme mispricing with Denver priced at 94¢ despite the game being scheduled for April 18, 2026—over two weeks before the May 2 close date, suggesting the contract may already be resolvable or the underlying event has passed. The astronomical 19,255% implied yield on the No side and 489% realized volatility indicate severe dislocations, likely driven by the temporal disconnect between event timing and market expiry. With $8.4M in 24-hour volume and a tight 1¢ spread, this appears to be a liquidity trap where traders are exploiting the pricing anomaly rather than expressing genuine uncertainty about the game outcome.

Resolution rules

If Denver wins the Minnesota at Denver professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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