Minnesota at Denver Winner?

The Minnesota at Denver market shows an extraordinarily high implied yield of 6278% on the Yes side, suggesting either severe mispricing or extreme tail risk—the 30¢ price implies only a 30% win probability for Minnesota despite being a road underdog in what should be a competitive matchup. With $151k in 24-hour volume and a tight 1¢ spread against $226k open interest, liquidity is moderate but the market appears relatively efficient for its size, though the neutral regime and low volatility ratio (0.24) suggest limited recent price discovery. The 14-day expiration and cliff risk index of 2 indicate the market will resolve soon, making this a high-risk, high-reward position dependent on game outcome rather than time decay.

Resolution rules

If Minnesota wins the Minnesota at Denver professional basketball game originally scheduled for Apr 18, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade