Will Paul Skenes win the 2026 NL Cy Young Award?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,655.53 open interest, making the 25¢ price potentially unreliable for serious trading. The 529.6% implied yield on the Yes side is artificially inflated due to the thin liquidity and wide 13¢ spread, while the 251% realized volatility and recent 2¢ price decline suggest meaningful uncertainty about Skenes' 2026 Cy Young prospects despite his promising early career trajectory. With 207 days to expiry and minimal information arrival (0.2/h), this market lacks sufficient depth for confident position-taking and would benefit from significantly increased participation to establish a credible probability estimate.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2026 National League Cy Young Award. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by MLB rules. If multiple winners are announced then this market will resolve to the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. If the 2026 MLB season is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Major League Baseball; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

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