Will Wesley Bell be the Democratic nominee for MO-01?

Wesley Bell is priced at a substantial 69¢ with over 15 months until the August 2026 Missouri primary, reflecting moderate confidence in his nomination prospects. The market shows a notable asymmetry with the "No" side offering a 761.5% implied yield versus 153.7% for "Yes," suggesting significant uncertainty despite Bell's front-runner positioning. Volume is thin at $148 in 24 hours with a tight 4¢ spread, indicating limited liquidity that could amplify price swings as the primary approaches.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the MO-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 4, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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