Will Alexis Hill win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary election?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 16,537% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe illiquidity or a significant analytical edge for contrarian bettors willing to take the position. The sharp 43% price decline over seven days (7¢ to 4¢) combined with minimal 24-hour volume of just $31 indicates thin liquidity that could amplify volatility, and the $14,151 open interest concentrated at these depressed odds creates potential for sharp reversions if Hill gains visibility. With 53 days to expiry and a cliff risk index of 24, this appears to be a speculative long-tail bet where the extreme yield reflects genuine uncertainty about Hill's candidacy rather than market consensus.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Nevada, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Nevada Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Nevada Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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