Will Alexis Hill be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Nevada?

This market shows a notable 2-cent cross-venue arbitrage gap, with Kalshi pricing Hill's nomination chances at 2% versus Polymarket's 4%, suggesting potential mispricing or liquidity differences between venues. The $525 open interest and zero 24-hour volume indicate extremely thin liquidity on Kalshi, making the 2-cent price potentially unreliable and vulnerable to large slippage. With over 20 months until the November 2026 close, the flat 7-day price action and wide 1-cent spread reflect minimal market activity and conviction around this relatively obscure candidate.

Resolution rules

If Alexis Hill wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2026 Nevada Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

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