Will Hollie Noveletsky be the Republican Nominee for NH-01?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume despite $2,066 open interest and a wide 23¢ spread, suggesting minimal trading activity and potentially stale pricing. The 514.9% implied yield on the "Yes" side is extraordinarily high relative to the 144-day timeframe, indicating either severe mispricing or very low confidence in the current 37¢ price holding. The astronomical 2,629% realized volatility and 12.69 vol ratio suggest this market has experienced dramatic historical price swings, though the neutral regime and modest 6¢ price movement over seven days indicate recent stability—making this a speculative, thinly-traded position with significant execution risk.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the NH-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on September 8, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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