Will Brad Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12?

This micro-liquidity market shows extreme volatility with realized volatility at 1379% and a massive 1857% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting severe mispricing or illiquidity-driven distortion rather than genuine probability assessment. The price has collapsed 33% over seven days (46¢ to 31¢) on just $9 in 24-hour volume and $481 open interest, indicating the 41¢ quote may not reflect true market consensus. With 44 days to resolution and a 3.67 volatility ratio, this appears to be a thin, speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced prediction market.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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