Will Verlina Reynolds-Jackson be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12?

This market shows extreme illiquidity and volatility despite modest open interest of $98.8K, with zero 24-hour volume and a massive 70¢ spread indicating virtually no active trading. The 46¢ price has surged 71% over seven days (from 27¢), yet the astronomical realized volatility of 2228% and implied yields exceeding 979% suggest the market is pricing in severe uncertainty rather than genuine conviction about Reynolds-Jackson's nomination chances. With only 44 days to the June 2, 2026 primary and a Cliff Risk Index of 1, this appears to be a thin, speculative market where large price swings can occur on minimal information flow (3.8 arrivals/hour), making it unreliable for serious prediction purposes.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NJ-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 2, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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