Will the Democratic Party win the NY-02 House seat?

The Democratic contract at 27¢ reflects a heavily Republican-favored district, with the No side offering a more modest 67.8% implied yield compared to the Yes side's exceptional 495.4% yield—a stark asymmetry suggesting limited Democratic upside potential. With zero 24-hour volume despite $21.4k open interest and 199 days to expiry, this market shows minimal liquidity and activity, making the quoted price potentially unreliable for serious positioning. The neutral regime score and modest 2¢ spread provide little additional conviction, though the low cliff risk index (3) suggests relatively stable pricing dynamics heading into the 2026 election.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026. ​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

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Regime

Trade