Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13?

This market shows extreme yield asymmetry with the "No" side offering 911.7% annualized return versus just 342.5% for "Yes," suggesting significant underpricing of Espaillat's nomination chances relative to alternatives. The $0 24-hour volume combined with $20.5k open interest and a tight 2¢ spread indicates low liquidity despite the 65-day runway to the June 23, 2026 primary, making this a thin market vulnerable to price swings. The 109% realized volatility and 0.59 vol ratio suggest past price movements haven't been predictive of future direction, and with only 0.5 info arrivals per hour, this market may be pricing in insufficient competitive threat from other Democratic candidates.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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