Will Beth Davidson be the Democratic nominee for NY-17?

Beth Davidson's nomination odds have surged 50% in seven days to 27¢, yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume despite $2.8M open interest and an extreme 1527% annualized yield on the Yes side, suggesting the recent price movement may reflect thin liquidity rather than genuine information flow. The 25¢ bid-ask spread is unusually wide for a political nomination market, and with only 65 days until the June 23 primary, the high volatility (1470% realized) combined with a 3.98 volume ratio indicates this contract may be illiquid or subject to manipulation. The neutral regime score and 3.1 info arrivals per hour suggest limited concrete developments about Davidson's candidacy, making the sharp price appreciation potentially speculative rather than fundamentals-driven.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-17 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Indicators

Regime

Trade