Will Chip Keating win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election?

This market displays extreme mispricing signals with a 9,543% implied yield on the Yes side despite minimal liquidity ($34.72 daily volume) and a modest $12.4K open interest, suggesting the 6¢ price may not reflect genuine market consensus. The astronomical realized volatility (2,118%) and high cliff risk index (16) indicate sharp, unpredictable price swings typical of thin markets where small trades create outsized moves rather than fundamental information arrival. With 60 days to expiration and only 1.8 information arrivals per hour, this appears to be a speculative position rather than an efficiently-priced prediction, and traders should be cautious of the wide 3¢ spread and potential difficulty exiting positions.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Oklahoma, scheduled to take place on June 16, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Oklahoma Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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