Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Jon Ossoff's 2028 presidential odds are priced at an extremely low 4¢ on Polymarket, implying just a 4% probability despite a substantial $388K open interest and healthy $7.4M in 24-hour volume. The Yes position offers an outsized 939% implied yield, though this reflects the low base rate rather than market inefficiency—the No side yields only 1.6%, suggesting the market is fairly confident in the outcome. The market has declined 1¢ over seven days and shows a moderate 24 Cliff Risk Index, indicating some tail risk but no immediate liquidity concerns with 933 days until resolution.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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