Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election?

Harris is priced at an extremely depressed 4¢ with an extraordinary 939% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either deep skepticism about her viability as a 2024 candidate or significant mispricing given her current political standing. The massive spread between Yes (939%) and No (1.6%) yields indicates the market is heavily skewed toward a No resolution, though the neutral regime score and flat 7-day price action suggest this extreme pricing may be stale rather than reflecting recent conviction. With $202.7M in open interest but only $13K in 24-hour volume, liquidity is thin relative to the contract size, creating potential for sharp repricing if market participants reassess her candidacy trajectory.

Resolution rules

The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same candidate by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.

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