Will Miami Dolphins win the 2026 AFC East

This illiquid market shows extreme asymmetry with a 498% implied yield on the Yes side versus 39.6% on the No side, suggesting significant mispricing or minimal trading activity—the $0 24-hour volume and 37¢ spread confirm this is a ghost market. The realized volatility of 6385% and the price tripling from 9¢ to 22¢ over seven days indicate sporadic, large trades rather than genuine price discovery, with the 4.0 info arrivals per hour likely reflecting automated feeds rather than meaningful news. At 22¢ with 260 days to expiry, this represents a contrarian bet on Miami's division chances, but the extreme yield metrics and near-zero liquidity make this unsuitable for serious capital allocation.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the team that is declared as the AFC East division champion for the 2026 NFL regular season. If multiple teams tie atop the division, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the NFL. If the 2026 NFL regular season is cancelled, postponed after January 17, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this division within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NFL; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Indicators

Regime

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