Will the Republican Party hold between 190 and 194 House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

This market shows extreme mispricing with a 27¢ price implying only 27% probability for Republicans to hold 190-194 seats, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 496.7% annualized yield—suggesting significant undervaluation given historical midterm seat distributions typically cluster in this range. The 12¢ spread and near-zero 24-hour volume ($0) indicate severe illiquidity despite $6.7k open interest, while the 1128% realized volatility and 5.58 vol ratio signal this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded contract with substantial execution risk. With 199 days to expiry and a neutral regime, the market appears to be pricing in an unusually decisive Republican collapse or surge, which warrants skepticism given the narrow band (190-194 seats) represents a plausible baseline outcome.

Resolution rules

The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. This market will resolve based on the results of all US House of Representatives elections, including special elections, that are scheduled to occur in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026. If a required runoff for any such election could change the market’s outcome, the market will remain open until that runoff is conclusively called by this market’s resolution sources. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called all US House of Representatives elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.

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