Will Billy Webster win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Democratic primary election?

Billy Webster's contract has collapsed 80% over seven days (from 51¢ to 11¢), suggesting a significant negative information event or market repricing, yet the $70.759 open interest with zero 24-hour volume indicates the market has largely frozen at this depressed level. The extreme 5049% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the contract's deep out-of-the-money status with only 53 days to resolution, while the 14¢ spread and 7/10 cliff risk index signal low liquidity and potential execution challenges for any remaining believers. The 9.14 volatility ratio and 3780% realized volatility suggest this is a highly speculative, thinly-traded position where the dramatic price drop may have exhausted available buyers rather than representing genuine probability discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of South Carolina, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 South Carolina Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Carolina Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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