Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election?

Alan Wilson's odds have surged 52% over the past week (27¢ to 41¢), now trading at a 4-cent premium to Kalshi (41¢ vs. 37¢), suggesting Polymarket sentiment has shifted more bullish. The extremely thin liquidity ($200 24h volume, $2.7M open interest) and massive 32-cent spread create high slippage risk, while the 851% realized volatility and 1037% implied yield indicate this is a highly speculative micro-market prone to sharp moves with limited depth. With 51 days to the June 9 primary and a neutral regime score, the market appears to be pricing in Wilson as a credible but uncertain contender—watch for candidate announcements or polling data that could trigger another volatile repricing.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of South Carolina, scheduled to take place on June 9, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 South Carolina Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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