Will Chip Roy win the Texas Republican primary runoff for Attorney General?

This market displays extreme mispricing signals with a 28¢ price generating an implausible 3,325% implied yield on the Yes side, suggesting either severe illiquidity distortion or a significant information gap—the $2,870 open interest and $76 daily volume are insufficient to support reliable price discovery. The 20¢ spread is exceptionally wide relative to the price level, and the realized volatility of 1,545% combined with a 7-point price rise over seven days (19¢ to 26¢) indicates substantial recent uncertainty, though the neutral regime score and modest 2.7/hour information arrival rate suggest no major news catalyst is currently driving the market. With 37 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 3, this appears to be a low-liquidity, high-volatility market where Roy's actual winning probability may differ materially from the quoted price.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Texas Republican Primary runoff election for state Attorney General, scheduled for May 26, 2026. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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