Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
Analysis
AI-generated · updated dailyJohn Cornyn is priced at 39¢ on Polymarket with an unusually high annualized yield of 1,553% on the Yes side, reflecting the market's short 37-day timeframe to resolution. The 1¢ spread is tight and the cross-venue gap to Kalshi (38¢) is minimal, suggesting reasonable liquidity despite moderate $1.03M daily volume against $53.3M open interest. With the market in neutral regime and only a 2-point cliff risk index, the modest 2¢ price increase over seven days suggests relatively stable sentiment, though the extreme yield figures indicate traders are pricing in significant uncertainty about the primary outcome.
Also on kalshi at 38¢(Δ +1¢)
Resolution rules
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Indicators
Regime
Trade
sf trade 0x781a06aa5779f97724b75ed8128aaf72c4a8955c893a6fefdc0efd7cb001c513 yes 100