Will DeVante Hill be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?

DeVante Hill's nomination odds have doubled from 2¢ to 4¢ over seven days, yet the market shows zero 24-hour volume and a tight 4¢ spread, suggesting thin liquidity despite $9.4M open interest. The extreme 8037% implied yield on a "Yes" resolution reflects the massive asymmetry between the 4¢ price and the binary outcome, though the 24 Cliff Risk Index and 3202% realized volatility indicate this is a highly speculative, low-confidence market. With only 109 days until the August 6, 2026 primary and minimal recent trading activity, this appears to be a niche position with limited price discovery.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 6, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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