Will Steve Cohen be the Democratic Nominee for TN-09?

Steve Cohen is priced at a substantial 58¢ with an unusually high implied yield of 243.2% for the Yes side, suggesting either significant underpricing or considerable uncertainty about his nomination prospects despite being the apparent frontrunner. The market shows minimal liquidity with only $121.76 in 24-hour volume against $10,367 open interest, and the tight 2¢ spread indicates limited active trading despite the market closing in just 109 days—notably close to the August 6, 2026 primary date itself. The neutral regime score and modest 2¢ price movement over seven days suggest the market has settled into a holding pattern, though the asymmetric yield profile (463.8% for No) warrants caution about tail risk scenarios where Cohen fails to secure the nomination.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TN-09 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on August 6, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Regime

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