Will turnout in the Texas Republican Senate primary runoff be between 600,000 and 900,000 voters?

The Yes position at 17¢ implies only a 17% probability of turnout hitting the 600k-900k range, yet carries an extraordinary 4,862% implied yield, suggesting severe mispricing or extreme tail risk pricing. The market has collapsed dramatically from 40¢ seven days ago while maintaining minimal liquidity ($147.93 daily volume) and a wide 28¢ spread, indicating thin order books and potential difficulty executing at posted prices. With 37 days to resolution and a realized volatility of 961%, this appears to be a speculative position rather than a fundamentally-grounded market, though the high info arrival rate (0.9/h) suggests active debate about expected turnout levels.

Resolution rules

The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election (the race’s total canvass votes). If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election aren’t known by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://www.sos.state.tx.us/index.shtml); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

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