US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?

The market is pricing a 22% probability of a US national Bitcoin reserve by end-2026, yet the Yes side offers an extraordinary 532% implied yield, suggesting either significant underpricing or extreme tail risk skepticism given only 258 days to resolution. The 7-cent price decline over seven days combined with a 509% realized volatility and 2.09 vol ratio indicates substantial uncertainty, while the thin $921 daily volume and wide 7-cent spread on $23.3k open interest raise liquidity concerns that could amplify moves if sentiment shifts. The neutral regime and modest 0.5/h information arrival rate suggest the market is waiting for concrete policy signals, making this a binary bet on near-term political action rather than a probability-weighted forecast.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Bitcoin in its reserves at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that the US government confiscating Bitcoin does not count as holding Bitcoin reserves. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Indicators

Regime

Trade