Will Jean Silva be the UFC Featherweight Champion on December 31, 2026?

Jean Silva's featherweight championship odds show a notable 4-cent cross-venue gap, trading at 19¢ on Polymarket versus 15¢ on Kalshi, suggesting potential arbitrage opportunity or venue-specific liquidity differences. The 608.7% implied yield on the yes side is extraordinarily high given the 256-day timeframe, but this is heavily distorted by the illiquid market—zero 24-hour volume and a wide 21¢ spread indicate thin order books where small trades can move prices dramatically. The extreme 1687% realized volatility and 6.33 vol ratio, combined with the recent 3-cent price drop over seven days, suggest this market has experienced sharp swings despite minimal trading activity, making it risky for position-building without deeper liquidity.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve according to the official UFC Featherweight division champion on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET. Only official UFC division champions will count. Interim champions will not count. If the relevant belt is vacant at this market’s check time, or there is otherwise no champion in the specified division, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC (https://www.ufc.com/athletes).

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