Howard Lutnick · Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027
Howard Lutnick is priced at 43¢ on Polymarket. Current book: 42¢ bid, 43¢ ask, 1¢ spread. This outcome ranks #4 of 16 inside Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?.
Price history
43¢ current
−2¢Contract brief
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Outcome
Howard Lutnick
Rank
#4 of 16
Leader
Kash Patel 56¢
Range
13¢-56¢
Family volume
$743K
Identifier
0x6eb86679...8483
Jun 8, 2026, 2:38 AM UTC · 20m ago
Implied probability
Bid
42¢
Ask
43¢
Spread
1¢
24h volume
$213
Family rank
#4 of 16
16 outcomes · Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Family volume
$743K
Orderbook snapshot
42 / 43¢
Contract terms
What resolves this market.
YES condition
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that that the listed individual will leave the Trump Administration, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Venue
Polymarket
Closes
Dec 31, 2026
Identifier
0x6eb86679…8483
Event family
Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027.
The same race as a probability stack: rank, volume, and where this contract sits against the other outcomes.
Total volume
$743K
Outcomes
16
Highest price
Kash Patel 56¢
Current share
11%
Kash Patel
polymarket · 0xde2be5c360bafeb33cc43bd0a49368ed89371daca90e1cc6da8bf7f93d5bbadf
Kristi Noem
polymarket · 0xc37f85182c9f8e6a25d9ac915e350f29ec6abd34adcfc75b42235214fcf1a8fd
Dan Scavino
polymarket · 0x133cb0cae12996144dd3ceed5c5524c38e2493bf2c2f412cec16ea9e4dc86cd1
Howard Lutnick
polymarket · 0x6eb86679303704bfc4dc014b21914063124bdd26702a77f5bc1d6d1aa6178483
Lee Zeldin
polymarket · 0xa9eb387628150ecc2ee19613ae55dc26f7e9e6a24b31ccecdcdae43c7824d2d3
David Sacks
polymarket · 0x41e7c27975bd53fe08a5ab30960934bfea92b60b88f56ee9d9b42b8b0c97d98d
Susie Wiles
polymarket · 0xa8ce9e92890d683bee3fb877f69b88fde9fe6665fdd4e078f84f7c91fdf390be
Karoline Leavitt
polymarket · 0x1960b144c14900701330156dfc592272d97e42084ccc28ad4c653bf8c1f2bcb6
Pete Hegseth
polymarket · 0xeae757a623cf6a8e4d63ab5ebca6739519f87f3506accbfdd75ae514a72bf461
Stephen Miller
polymarket · 0x8e2c840905e4089910b2797984e2331e23be0b0071ddcb67c466a120faf05b60
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
polymarket · 0xbb0d2443a9c76fce0910ca7a602f3a6d56bc676c9a1b078829fd20a782e2560f
Russell Vought
polymarket · 0xa2df577205d2ce04af348ef5d5174259c5990d20784e1a063992c1f155b2ec27
Tom Homan
polymarket · 0xaaf71e9c0dd6115c5e981eb0d3c7a9136d3f527402fde1561441fa9e392d1127
Scott Bessent
polymarket · 0xe51901c28b674d46cca978bb16790dbb42e291c31ce2acc8faa7bb16960c8eda
John Ratcliffe
polymarket · 0xc3bbe4f2c5da7562443c176bb95590a33ae534111d6f1682e35aafa4add68213
Marco Rubio
polymarket · 0x48a3e95c0bc1b9305e56445a7affcb857fd61e0ae0d78a4778310a1108ceb08a
Indicators
Yield, cliff risk, volatility, and regime.
Regime
neutral
Score
0.5
Observability
medium
Event type
political
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SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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