Who will run for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2028?

This Mark Cuban 2028 Democratic nomination market is pricing in only a 30% probability despite offering an exceptional 196% annualized yield on the Yes side, suggesting either significant skepticism about Cuban's candidacy or underpricing of tail risk. The extremely high realized volatility (282%) and vol ratio (2.06) indicate substantial uncertainty, while the thin $117 daily volume and modest $5,170 open interest raise liquidity concerns that could amplify price swings. With 625 days to expiration and a neutral regime, the market appears to be waiting for concrete signals—the flat 7-day price action at 23¢ suggests current equilibrium, though the 6¢ spread indicates some friction in execution.

Resolution rules

If Mark Cuban announces a presidential campaign to contest the presidential nomination of the Democratic party for the 2028 U.S. presidential election before Jan 1, 2028,, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade