Who will win Rookie of the Year?

69¢
Bid/Ask 69/72¢·Spread 3¢·Vol $186,830.7·OI $1,719,187.34·Closes Apr 12, 2027·359d remaining
KXNBAROY-26-CFLA
7-day price739 snapshots · 120 regime
78¢27¢Apr 8Apr 18

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

The market is pricing Cooper Flagg at 69¢ on Kalshi versus 71¢ on Polymarket, creating a 2-cent arbitrage opportunity favoring the No side on Kalshi. The extremely asymmetric implied yields (47.8% for Yes versus 215.9% for No) combined with 445% realized volatility and a 5.92 vol ratio suggest significant uncertainty despite the high baseline probability, with the market experiencing 3.1 information arrivals per hour. With 359 days to expiry and $1.7M open interest, liquidity is adequate, though the recent 3-cent price decline from 72¢ warrants monitoring for potential momentum shifts in this high-volatility regime.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 71¢-2¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.88IY 503.0%Close-time delta 7910h

Resolution rules

If Cooper Flagg wins the Pro basketball Rookie of the Year in the 2025-26 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 47.8%
IY (No) 215.9%
Adj IY 203%
CRI 2
RV 445%
VR 5.92
▶ Full indicator table (9)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)47.8%
IY (No)215.9%
Adj IY203%
CRI2
RV445%
VR5.92
IAR3.1/h
Overround0.0%
LAS0.06

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.409
Spread
3¢
Computed
4/18/2026, 8:46:30 AM
Observability mediumEvent type sports
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/18/2026, 8:38:22 AM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXNBAROY-26-CFLA yes 100

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