Will Amen Thompson be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 1st Team?

12¢

Bid/Ask 0/12¢·Spread 12¢·Vol $35·OI $411·Closes Jun 30, 2026·74d remaining

KXNBA1STTEAMDEF-26-AMTHO

7-day price5 snapshots · 5 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $376 open interest, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 12¢ spread. The astronomical 3005.6% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or reflects the genuine difficulty of a young player making All-Defensive 1st Team, though Thompson's defensive potential warrants scrutiny of whether 14% truly captures his odds. The sharp 26% price decline over seven days (19¢ to 14¢) combined with a high Cliff Risk Index of 6 indicates volatility and potential for significant moves as the 75-day expiration approaches, though the thin market makes execution problematic for any meaningful position.

Resolution rules

If Amen Thompson is selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball All-Defensive 1st Team, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3621.5%

IY (No) 67.3%

Adj IY 0%

CRI 7

Overround 3.2%

LAS 1.00

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	3621.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	67.3%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	0%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	3.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	1.00	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

12¢

Computed

4/17/2026, 4:15:31 PM

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/17/2026, 4:08:51 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNBA1STTEAMDEF-26-AMTHO yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →