Will Amen Thompson be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 1st Team?

The market is pricing Thompson at just 16¢ with an extremely wide 13¢ spread, suggesting thin liquidity despite $471 in open interest and modest $60 daily volume. The implied yield on the Yes side (2652%) is extraordinarily high relative to the 72-day timeframe, indicating either severe mispricing or elevated uncertainty about Thompson's defensive credentials for next season. Price has declined 3¢ over seven days, and with a Cliff Risk Index of 5, there's meaningful binary risk as the June 2026 expiration approaches.

Resolution rules

If Amen Thompson is selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball All-Defensive 1st Team, then the market resolves to Yes.

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