Will Amen Thompson be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 1st Team?

12¢
Bid/Ask 0/12¢·Spread 12¢·Vol $35·OI $411·Closes Jun 30, 2026·74d remaining
KXNBA1STTEAMDEF-26-AMTHO
7-day price5 snapshots · 5 regime
19¢12¢Apr 12Apr 17

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $376 open interest, making the 14¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 12¢ spread. The astronomical 3005.6% implied yield on the Yes side suggests severe mispricing or reflects the genuine difficulty of a young player making All-Defensive 1st Team, though Thompson's defensive potential warrants scrutiny of whether 14% truly captures his odds. The sharp 26% price decline over seven days (19¢ to 14¢) combined with a high Cliff Risk Index of 6 indicates volatility and potential for significant moves as the 75-day expiration approaches, though the thin market makes execution problematic for any meaningful position.

Resolution rules

If Amen Thompson is selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball All-Defensive 1st Team, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 3621.5%
IY (No) 67.3%
Adj IY 0%
CRI 7
Overround 3.2%
LAS 1.00
▶ Full indicator table (6)
IndicatorValue
IY (Yes)3621.5%
IY (No)67.3%
Adj IY0%
CRI7
Overround3.2%
LAS1.00

Regime

Label
neutral
Score
0.5
Spread
12¢
Computed
4/17/2026, 4:15:31 PM
Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/17/2026, 4:08:51 PM

Trade

View on kalshisf trade KXNBA1STTEAMDEF-26-AMTHO yes 100

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