Will Ausar Thompson be selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball Defensive 1st Team?

The market has priced Thompson at an extremely bullish 92¢ with minimal trading volume ($10 in 24h), suggesting limited liquidity and potential mispricing given the dramatic 25-cent rally over seven days. The asymmetric implied yields—38% for Yes versus 6,713% for No—indicate severe underpricing of the No outcome, which typically signals either strong conviction about Thompson's defensive credentials or a thin, illiquid market vulnerable to sharp reversals. With 72 days to resolution and a Cliff Risk Index of 13, the high concentration of open interest ($17,569) at this extreme price creates meaningful tail risk if Thompson's defensive performance falters or voters favor other candidates.

Resolution rules

If Ausar Thompson is selected to the 2025-26 Pro Basketball All-Defensive 1st Team, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Regime

Trade