Will Buffalo draft a Cornerback / Safety first?

29¢mid

Bid/Ask 18/40¢·Spread 22¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes May 3, 2026·14d remaining

KXNFLTEAM1POS-26BUF-CBSA

7-day price9 snapshots · 5 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and open interest, making the 0¢ price potentially unreliable despite the astronomical 11,333.8% implied yield on the Yes side. The 22¢ spread is unusually wide for a binary market, and the cliff risk index of 5 suggests significant uncertainty around resolution mechanics or data availability. With only 15 days until the May 3, 2026 close and the 2026 NFL Draft likely imminent, this appears to be a dead or abandoned market that may not reflect true probability.

Resolution rules

If Buffalo select any Cornerback / Safety with their 1st pick in the 2026 Pro Football Draft, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 11673.5%

IY (No) 562.5%

Adj IY 5837%

CRI 5

Overround -0.2%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	11673.5%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	562.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	5837%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	5	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

22¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 8:22:19 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 8:08:31 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXNFLTEAM1POS-26BUF-CBSA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →