Will Craig Stammen win NL MOTY?

10¢

Bid/Ask 3/10¢·Spread 7¢·Vol $0·OI $1,335.07·Closes Dec 8, 2026·233d remaining

KXMLBNLMOTY-26-CSTA

7-day price117 snapshots · 4 regime

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and a wide 7¢ spread despite modest $1,335 open interest, making the 10¢ price potentially unreliable. The astronomical 5,058.7% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the tiny position size rather than genuine opportunity, and the sharp 62.5% price decline over seven days (8¢ to 3¢) suggests either new information about Stammen's managerial prospects or thin-market volatility. With 233 days to expiration and a 32 Cliff Risk Index, this contract carries significant execution risk and should be treated as highly speculative given the negligible trading activity.

Resolution rules

If Craig Stammen wins the Pro Baseball National League Manager of the Year in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 5058.7%

IY (No) 4.8%

Adj IY 2529%

CRI 32

Overround -0.3%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	5058.7%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	4.8%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2529%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	32	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	-0.3%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/19/2026, 7:59:36 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 7:53:35 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBNLMOTY-26-CSTA yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →