Will Devin Williams win NL Reliever of the Year?

13¢

Bid/Ask 0/8¢·Spread 8¢·Vol $0·OI $96·Closes Dec 8, 2026·233d remaining

KXMLBNLRELOTY-26-DWIL

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $96 open interest, making the 13¢ price potentially unreliable despite the wide 8¢ spread. The astronomical 1047% implied yield on Yes contracts suggests severe mispricing or reflects genuine uncertainty about Williams' 2026 performance, though the sharp 7-day rally from 1¢ to 13¢ indicates recent sentiment shift rather than fundamental information. With 233 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 7, this remains a speculative position with minimal market depth.

Resolution rules

If Devin Williams wins the Pro Baseball National League Reliever of the Year in the 2026 season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 1047.0%

IY (No) 23.4%

Adj IY 524%

CRI 7

Overround 0.5%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	1047.0%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	23.4%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	524%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	7	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.5%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Computed

4/19/2026, 8:00:12 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 7:53:35 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXMLBNLRELOTY-26-DWIL yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →