Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) during in May 2026?

Trump Tariffs 2026: Trade War Risk with China & Mexico and What Prediction Markets Are Pricing In

Deep‑dive guide to Trump’s 2025–26 tariff agenda, trade war risk with China and Mexico, macro and sector impacts, and how to use prediction markets to trade Trump tariffs 2026.

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Which Prediction Market Should You Trade?

In-depth comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket for prediction market traders. Regulatory structure, liquidity, fees, API tooling, and cross-venue trading with SimpleFunctions.

The 1992 Pound Trade Has a $82M Polymarket Twin: Conviction Macro Bets in the Age of On-Chain Liquidity

Soros and Druckenmiller scaled their pound short to $10B in a single September 1992 day. Théo deployed $80M across 11 Polymarket accounts on Trump 2024 and netted ~$82.3M. The mechanic — proprietary signal, conviction sizing, asymmetric payoff — is identical. The instrument is new.

Kalshi vs Polymarket: Mechanics, Fees, Regulation, Liquidity (2026)

Side-by-side comparison of Kalshi and Polymarket in 2026. Fee math, calibration data, withdrawal speed, and a decision tree for picking the right venue.

Liquidity Availability Is the Real Edge in Prediction Markets

Implied yield, cliff risk, and overround all describe what to trade. Liquidity Availability Score describes whether the orderbook can absorb the trade. Why LAS is the indicator that decides who actually books P&L.

US Midterm Elections 2026 Prediction Markets: Trading the Battle for Congress

A deep‑dive guide for prediction market traders on the 2026 US midterm elections: House and Senate control odds, key races, Trump’s impact, economic and approval scenarios, polling accuracy, and data‑driven trading strategies.