Will France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 be above 0.2%?

92¢mid

Bid/Ask 86/98¢·Spread 12¢·Vol $0·OI $0·Closes Apr 30, 2026·12d remaining

KXFRGDPYOYP-26APR30-T0.2

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero volume and open interest despite a massive 12-cent spread, suggesting virtually no trader interest in a contract expiring in just 12 days. The price has surged dramatically from 32¢ to 86¢ over seven days, yet the 0% current quote appears stale and disconnected from that recent momentum, indicating potential pricing dysfunction. The astronomical implied yields (492% for Yes, 18,565% for No) are artifacts of near-zero liquidity rather than genuine market signals, and with resolution imminent, this contract is likely abandoned by traders pending the April 30 INSEE preliminary GDP release.

Resolution rules

If France GDP growth rate YoY prel for Q1 2026 is above 0.2 , then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 499.3%

IY (No) 18841.5%

Adj IY 8107%

CRI 6

Overround 4.2%

LAS 0.14

▶ Full indicator table (6)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	499.3%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	18841.5%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	8107%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	6	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	4.2%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family
LAS	0.14	Liquidity Availability Score

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.568

Spread

12¢

Computed

4/18/2026, 8:06:35 AM

Observability highEvent type data_release

Has orderbookIndicators computed 4/18/2026, 7:53:34 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXFRGDPYOYP-26APR30-T0.2 yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →