Will Geraldo Perdomo lead Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season?

4¢

Bid/Ask 0/4¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $1·Closes Oct 22, 2026·188d remaining

KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-GPER

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with only $1 open interest and zero 24-hour volume, making the 4660% implied yield on the Yes side largely theoretical rather than actionable. The 4¢ price reflects a heavily skeptical view of Perdomo leading MLB in RBIs—a feat requiring a career year from a player who has never approached league-leading RBI totals—though the massive yield spread (4660% vs 8.1%) suggests minimal confidence in either outcome given the thin market. With 188 days to expiry and a Cliff Risk Index of 24, this appears to be a novelty or niche bet with insufficient liquidity for meaningful trading.

Resolution rules

If Geraldo Perdomo leads Pro Baseball in RBIs for the 2026 regular season, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4660.2%

IY (No) 8.1%

Adj IY 2330%

CRI 24

Overround 0.6%

▶ Full indicator table (5)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4660.2%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	8.1%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2330%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution
Overround	0.6%	Multi-outcome arb signal across the event family

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/17/2026, 2:45:47 PM

Indicators computed 4/17/2026, 2:38:52 PM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXLEADERMLBRBI-26-GPER yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →