Will GOP Nominee be John Cornyn AND General Election Winner be Democrat for Jan 2027?

This market is pricing an extremely unlikely compound outcome—a Democratic general election victory paired with John Cornyn as the GOP nominee—at just 12¢, generating a 473% implied yield on the Yes side that reflects the steep probability discount. The zero 24-hour volume and $9,240 open interest suggest minimal liquidity and conviction, making the 1¢ spread somewhat misleading as a true execution cost. The recent price movement from 9¢ to 11¢ over seven days is modest but notable given the dormant trading activity, and with 624 days to expiry, this market has ample time for significant repricing if either condition becomes materially more likely.

Resolution rules

If ALL of the following occur before Jan 2027: GOP Nominee: John Cornyn, General Election Winner: Democrat, then the market resolves to Yes.

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