Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

The market is pricing in an exceptionally high probability (90%) for Cepeda Castro to win the first round, yet the extremely asymmetric implied yields—10% for Yes versus 806.5% for No—suggest minimal conviction despite the steep price, with the No side offering outsized compensation for tail risk. Volume is thin at just $51 over 24 hours against $26.6k open interest, and the sharp 7-point rally from 83¢ to 90¢ combined with a high cliff risk index (9) indicates potential concentration or recent momentum-driven buying that may not reflect fundamental shifts in the Colombian political landscape. With 407 days to expiry, there's substantial time for the market to reprice, making this a high-conviction but low-liquidity position vulnerable to reversal.

Resolution rules

If Iván Cepeda Castro wins the first round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

Regime

Trade