Will John Rose be the Republican nominee for Governor in Tennessee?

8¢

Bid/Ask 4/8¢·Spread 4¢·Vol $0·OI $1,947·Closes Nov 3, 2026·198d remaining

KXGOVTNNOMR-2-26-JROS

Analysis

AI-generated · updated daily

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and only $1,947 open interest, making the 8¢ price potentially unreliable despite a wide 4¢ spread. The 300-basis-point gap between Kalshi (8¢) and Polymarket (5¢) suggests pricing inefficiency, with Kalshi's quote appearing overvalued relative to the cross-venue benchmark. The astronomical 4,415.8% implied yield on the Yes side reflects the illiquidity premium rather than genuine conviction about Rose's nomination odds, and with 198 days to expiry, this market lacks sufficient depth for meaningful position-building.

Cross-venue

Also on polymarket at 5¢(Δ +3¢)

View counterpart →Match confidence 0.89IY 6376.7%Close-time delta 2151h

Resolution rules

If John Rose wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 Tennessee Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Indicators

IY (Yes) 4415.8%

IY (No) 7.7%

Adj IY 2208%

CRI 24

▶ Full indicator table (4)

Indicator	Value	Meaning
IY (Yes)	4415.8%	Annualized return if held to expiry, YES side
IY (No)	7.7%	Annualized return, NO side
Adj IY	2208%	Risk-adjusted IY — penalizes dead markets and high friction
CRI	24	Cliff Risk Index — how fast the market approaches resolution

Regime

Label

neutral

Score

0.5

Spread

4¢

Computed

4/19/2026, 6:19:58 AM

Indicators computed 4/19/2026, 5:53:19 AM

Trade

View on kalshi →sf trade KXGOVTNNOMR-2-26-JROS yes 100

Related concepts

Implied Yield →Cliff Risk Index →