Will Julie Fedorchak be the Republican nominee for North Dakota's at-large congressional district?

This market shows extreme illiquidity with zero 24-hour volume and minimal open interest of $494, making the 93¢ price potentially unreliable despite the tight 4¢ spread. The massive disparity between the Yes implied yield (6.6%) and No implied yield (1165%) suggests the market is pricing in near-certainty for Fedorchak's nomination, but with so little trading activity, this could reflect thin positioning rather than genuine consensus. With 416 days to expiration and a moderate cliff risk index of 13, there's substantial time for competitive dynamics in the North Dakota Republican primary to shift market expectations, though the current price implies she faces minimal nomination opposition.

Resolution rules

If Julie Fedorchak wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the 2026 North Dakota at-large congressional district House seat, then the market resolves to Yes.

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